Is the 4-year Bitcoin cycle already breaking down?

We’re in 2025. Bitcoin made a new ATH in October (~$126k), but by December we’re back near $90k, which puts BTC red YTD. That alone already deviates from how the post-halving year has historically behaved.

If the classic 4-year cycle were intact, 2025 should look like sustained expansion. Instead, we got a brief ATH and a sharp pullback. That also creates a problem for 2026. Historically, the year after the peak is the worst of the four. If 2026 ends up being an up year, that would directly contradict the model.

So what would actually break the cycle? • Losing long-term support for an extended period • No meaningful new highs within a reasonable post-halving window • Long-term holders selling into weakness • 2026 behaving like an expansion year instead of a reset

What would keep it alive? • Holding long-term structure • Another ATH that holds, not just a brief spike • A clear post-peak cooldown in 2026

None of this proves the cycle is dead yet, but between timing, structure, and behavior, it does feel like the 4-year model is being tested in a real way.

Honestly, even reading my own bullet points makes me scratch my head. That this is what it takes to either confirm or disproved the cycle. It seems to me that it has clearly been changed, but the dagger in the heart will be 2026 being an expansion green year.