"Sinners" star Michael B. Jordan’s odds of winning the Best Actor Oscar jumped from 10% on March 1 after he won the SAG best actor award.
Actor Michael B. Jordan overtook Timothée Chalamet on prediction market platform Polymarket as the most likely winner of the Best Actor Oscar at the 2026 Academy Awards.
Last week, the “Sinners” star won the best actor award at the Actor Awards, formerly known as the Screen Actors Guild Awards, or SAG.
A week out from the Academy Awards, Polymarket traders place Jordan’s odds of winning the award at about 47%, while Chalamet is a close second at 45%, Leonardo DiCaprio is at 5%, Wagner Moura holds 4% odds and Ethan Hawke has only 1% odds. Chalamet was in the lead until Saturday.
Jordan was nominated for an Oscar for his role as twin brothers Smoke and Stack Moore in the 2025 vampire horror film “Sinners.” Chalamet was nominated for his role in “Marty Supreme,” a fictional drama film about a table tennis player.
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