Hope you tried those 14 polymarket strategies I posted here earlier.
They all look amazing. They all work great.
Until they don’t.

Be honest: it's all gambling.

Only 17% of Polymarket wallets are profitable. I’m in the other 86%

https://preview.redd.it/wfc5w9u6xyig1.png?744&format=png&auto=webp&s=986532a546c477a5cfd2af1246de048bbfddf0ad

Betting on prediction markets is not different from waiting for ETH to reach $10k.
Eth maxis and XRP army are different only in 3 letters of their cult.

Gambling isn’t bad per se, as long as it’s done consciously and in moderation.
Yeah, I’m sure you’re the disciplined one.

Why I started looking for something better

At some point I started looking for less risk and more certainty.

VCs are famous for dumping token supply on retail and nuking your bags. But there is one legal way retail gets paid back: airdrop farming.

You’re basically getting rewarded for being early, using new products, and yes, leaking your wallet history in the process.

Most prediction markets are currently running points or airdrop programs, where you get rewarded for trading or betting volume.

But here’s the problem again: buying “Yes” or “No” on some future event is still gambling. Don’t believe anyone who tries to rebrand it as something else.

We don’t know where Bitcoin goes next.
We don’t know how many rate cuts the Fed will do this year.

So how do you participate without making a directional bet?

The strategy: Polymarket arbitrage + airdrop farming

What I was looking for was a delta-neutral setup, where both sides hedge each other, but I still generate volume for airdrops.

The best thing I found is prediction market arbitrage.

Not just Polymarket and Kalshi anymore either. Besides them there are Opinion, Probable, Limitless, Predict fun.

https://preview.redd.it/rnqxj7xixyig1.png?834&format=png&auto=webp&s=e691eccb7adf9c12902d7eb9851ed9b4735fb426

With that many markets pricing the same events, you naturally get inefficiencies between them.

They’re not huge. Usually 1–3%.

For now, there aren’t serious high-frequency trading firms in this niche closing those gaps instantly.

Not for long.

How it works in practice (high level)

The logic is pretty simple:

• Find the same event priced differently across two markets
• Account for fees
• Buy Yes on one, No on the other. But choose the one that add up to less then 100.
• Exit before resolution once the spread closes. Or wait for resolution.
• Rinse, repeat

If you’re consistent, you can make about 1% per week, which compounds to 68% APY.

The extra bonus: you’re farming airdrops the whole time.

Kalshi doesn’t really fit here since it’s closer to a traditional bookmaker.

Polymarket, Opinion, and Probable are blockchain-based and currently running points programs ahead of potential token launches.

That combo is the whole reason this works.

Risks

This isn’t free money.

Main things that can go wrong:

• The spread never closes and your capital is stuck until event resolution
• Two markets resolve the “same” event differently because of nuanced rules
• A token never launches and the airdrop ends up worthless

You absolutely have to read event rules carefully. That’s not optional.

The hard part: finding good markets

Execution is easy. Finding opportunities is the hard part.

That’s what you’re actually getting paid for.

There are three ways to do it. The best ones aren’t free.

Tools people use (not endorsements)

These are paid and don't offer free trials.

1. ArbBets

• starts at $40/week or $60/month.
• Strong for sports betting
• Multiple regions and 10+ bookmakers in each region
• Built-in calculator and direct market links

Sports Bookmakers in US

Available Prediction markets arbitrage opportunities

Detailed view for arbitrage

My experience:
Great for sports. Pretty useless for politics, macro, crypto, or pop culture. I didn’t see any markets tied to airdrops. Might be plan-related, but for polymarket arbitrage specifically, it didn’t do much for me.

2. AlertPilot

• starts at $100/month
• Covers Polymarket, Opinion, Probable
• Compares event rules to reduce opposite-resolution risk
• Shows historical spread behavior between markets
• Optional Telegram alerts when spreads widen

ai reasoning helps with rules conflicts

TG bot can be configured for max EV or max spread

My experience:
It saves time. That’s it. It doesn’t magically make trades safe. You still need to understand fees, liquidity, and exits. I did a full video review of it, I’ll drop that in the comments.

3. Build it yourself

Lots of viral posts about "Build your own Polymarket arbitrage bot".
Let me tell you from my own experience - it's a fast way to loose your $.

https://i.redd.it/5f4ssf920zig1.gif

Even with detailed instructions, rules and "make no mistake" - ai still confuses some events rules.

It will tell you "Ah! Good catch! you're right ... " but your balance already -$2.382

It's an amazing exercise trying to build it. The best solution is to turn it into trading assistant, your personal quant rather than autonomous trader.

You'll need the usual stack: claude/codex/cursor, openclaw and markets data.

Imagine asking your chatting with your openclaw "are there any arb opportunities? Which should i get into?"

Polymarket, Opinion, and Limitless all offer free API access (with rate limits). You can query prices and place trades programmatically.

Just be careful:

• Still have to pay regular trading fee. Add up fast.
• Bad logic drains balances quietly
• Automation makes mistakes faster. However you can only create notifications but then double check and manually set trades.

Building your own bot will also allow you to tweak and fine tune filters.
Non of the solutions are set and forget.

How long does this last?

It won’t last forever.

HFT funds will enter.
Someones openclaw with a fat stack will close all spreads.
Platforms will launch their tokens.
Airdrops will end.

But right now, polymarket arbitrage combined with airdrop farming is one of the few ways to participate without taking pure directional risk.

For now, happy farming.